It is easy to stand back and scorn Bush and Blair for their misjudgement of their failure in Iraq. However, it is very likely that their original mistakes were perfectly explicable. They had a lot of high quality information from very good sources, which to a good part hinted that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
The rest of us had much less information, and from that we judged that it was unlikely to be any WMD in Iraq. The problem was that our information was low quality. It turned out to be a very good selection of data, but the quality was low. CIA provided very good quality data, but unfortunately the selection was very bad.
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