16 December 2008

Confucius entrapped

In the 1999 film "Entrapment", Catherine Zeta-Jones' character, Gin, sees the following Chinese characters, which are supposed to be used to dial a code:

蚊子炮打
夺刀用与
生别牛枪

She immediately spots that six of the characters can be used to say 别用炮打蚊子, bié yòng pào dǎ wén zi, which means "Don't use a cannon to kill a mosquito." She identifies this as a Confucius (孔子) quote.

This is a top secret room in one of the biggest banks in South East Asia. It is strange that they would choose a code that is easy to guess. But I guess, they perhaps had good insurance, so they did not really care.

The grammar of 别用炮打蚊子 is not particularly classic, as far as I can tell. It is good modern Chinese, but hardly the kind Confucius would have used 2500 years ago.

It is also surprising that Confucius would have anything to say about cannons, almost one thousand years before gunpowder was invented.

So, basically, it seems like Gin is wrong from beginning to end.

But, I do not know if that matters very much, because she had a pretty smile when she said it.

Setting Madoff in perspective

I overheard this conversation on a train recently.

"Did you hear they got Bernard Madoff? He had squandered 50 billion dollars. Hearing things like that, I wonder why the police raised their eyebrows, when they found out I had taken just 500 euro from the bank where I work. That's nothing in comparison."

"Yes. It's the same thing for me. I blew off just 4 billion euro, and you should hear the fuzz they made about it."

14 December 2008

Eradicating with compassion

It is often claimed that man is a horrible threat towards nature. Allegedly, we are much worse than any other species.

It is true that man is responsible for one of the worse mass extinctions on earth. However, it is due to our power, not due to our lack of concern. This is in fact something that sets us apart from other animals. Man is a compassionate animal.

It is likely that there were stone age people worried about the survival of the woolly mammoth. However, they lacked the legal institutions to protect them. It is even possible that the last human hunter who killed the last mammoth thought that there were plenty of other ones around, and had he known that this was the last one, he would not have killed it.

It is likely that there among the sailors approaching Mauritius in the 17th century to get dodo birds, there were some who were concerned with the survival of the species. However, as each sailor went there for just a short period of time, there was no long term plan set up to protect the birds. And once rats and cats were set loose on the island, there was no way to remove them to save the dodo.

We know that people in India feel bad about cutting down the habitat of tigers. However, when you need to feed your own children, they take priority over tigers, especially as the tigers presumably could go elsewhere. The problem is that people around "elsewhere" may say the same thing and cut down the tiger's habitat there. Luckily, the government of India has set up long term legislation to protect the tiger. If it is enough, we still do not know.

A squirrel would never have set up long term legislation to protect the tiger. A squirrel would probably not care if the last tiger died in front of its very eyes. No other animal, except man, cares about the survival of tigers.

At the Max-Planck-Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, they made attempts to help chimpanzees find food hidden under cups, by pointing at the right cups. The chimpanzees did not understand the gesture at all. However, chimpanzees happily point at objects themselves, to hint that humans should give something to them. It is just that chimpanzees never point to each other. They are unable to fathom the concept of someone else helping them in this way. As soon as the human changed gesture from pointing to an open hand, as if the human tried to grab the food, the chimpanzee understood the gesture. "If the human tries to get the cup, that means that it contains food, and then I can get it." (Documented in "Why Don’t Apes Point?" by Michael Tomasello.)

Chimpanzees are able to cooperate, when they get a reward for it, and sometimes even without direct reward. However, they seem to have a very limited sense of gratitude or compassion.

There are of course some animals, who care about other species. There is for example the fennec fox, which never eats all the berries of a bush, as it "knows" that the bush needs them to survive. Likewise there are plenty of animals living in symbiosis with other animals. However, in all those cases, it seems their behaviour is part of their DNA to protect some other species.

No other animal has the human ability to reflect and feel compassion about another species, for either practical or moral reasons.

Our challenge now is to set this compassion in practice.


Non compassionate squirrel

13 December 2008

Ed Wood - what's his grandeur?

I recently saw my first, and hopefully last, film by Ed Wood, Bride of the Monster. This film producer is famous for being the worst one ever. His films are really low budget. The plots are idiotic. The actors are for the most part abysmal, and the "special" effects would make a child feel embarrassed because of their simplicity.

So, why do we admire him? Why did Tim Burton make a film about this failure, and why did Johnny Depp star in this award winning film about the worst of the worst?

Anyone could produce such a bad film as Bride of the Monster. In fact, most of us are potentially even worse film producers, and that is the reason we do not enter the business.

The amazing thing with Ed Wood was not that he was bad, but that he had the tenacity to go on and gather money to produce new films, in spite of his mediocrity.

What we admire is his energy to produce anything that bad.

11 December 2008

The Auto Bailout - who does it hurt?

The US senate is not overly enthusiastic about the 14 billion dollar bailout of the car industry. 14 billion is of course much less than the 25 billion that the car industry initially asked for, but it may still be too much.

The bailout will go mainly to General Motors and Chrysler, who are worst off. Ford will lose out comparatively, as they get less money, as a punishment for having run their business better in the past.

The car businesses in other countries will lose competitive advantages against the American firms. Other countries will find the need and a good excuse for subsidising their own car industries, which then will hurt the American car industry.

American consumers, as well as consumers everywhere in the world, will lose out, as three badly run companies will be kept alive - something that hurts the more efficient competition.

American tax payers will lose, as they will have to provide the money.

Producers of other products will lose, as their products will look less accessible than cars.

This does not mean that it is obvious that there should be no bailout, however. There are almost a quarter of a million people directly employed by the three big auto manufacturers, and perhaps as much as three million indirectly depending on it.

If the three companies were to close down overnight, the repercussions are impossible to judge. Banks would fail. The housing market would dive even deeper. It is impossible to tell if the American economy, or the world economy, could handle that.

Luckily, it is unlikely that all three companies will close down suddenly. There will be attempts at solutions, mergers, acquisitions by other companies, domestic or foreign ones. In short, it is possible that the economy could survive without the bailout.

The only worrying detail is that it also is possible that it might not.

06 December 2008

Cultural Indians

My sister was recently assigned to a job which involves a lot of contact with people in Mumbay (मुंबई). To make sure she could handle the cultural differences, she was sent on a course to learn to handle the Indian mindset.

"The important thing is to keep the locals happy. Small gifts are often appreciated - especially glass pebbles and fire water. You always greet an Indian by raising your right hand saying 'how!' (If you are German you should still not greet the Indian with 'wie!', but with 'how!') After that you go on to ask how his squaw is doing, and how many buffaloes he has killed in the morning. If you are invited into an Indian's teepee, look out for his tomahawks and praise their beauty."

That was the only kinds of things they learned. She was very disappointed. She had hoped to at least learn how to comfortably sleep on a bed of nails.

Where is all the money gone?

Is the current financial crisis a fictional crisis? It seems like everything worked fine until suddenly people decided not to lend money to each other any more.

No, it is probably the other way round. It was pure fiction that it seemed to work in the first place.

13 October 2008

Subprime crisis - I knew it!

Have you noticed the amazing lack of experts and analysts who can say: "Just as I predicted, the financial crisis has come and driven the world economy to a halt and slashed the value of the world's stock exchanges by half. Just check my article from last month."

And yet there is no shortage of analysts who know exactly what will come and how to tackle the crisis.

How come there are so few people who knew what actually happened, but so many who know what will happen?

Blessed be the agnostics.

10 October 2008

Protecting your money

Just to cheer myself up, I started thinking about the global economic crisis. "How", I thought, "can I place my money in the safest way in these dire times?"

Shares? You must be joking.

Real estate? That is not falling right now, where I live, so it probably will very soon.

State bonds? States may not be able to honour them. Iceland seems very unlikely to do so.

Foreign currency? Falling and rising in a chaotic dance.

Local currency? It may work short term, but inflation may get very tough.

Gold? Diamonds? Petrol? None of them very safe.

No, the safest way to place money right now is to spend it. Then you know it has been of some use. Therefore I'll buy another laptop next week and go on holiday in Tuscany. I only hope it is expensive enough, so I get to use as much money as possible. I could not afford keeping it.

08 October 2008

Protecting a home from small things

There was a paper in my letterbox this morning. The title was "Should we accept electro-magnetic radiation through our homes?" As I use electro-magnetic waives when I listen to the radio, watch television or use my mobile phone or even read a book, I decided that the answer was "yes", we shall accept it, and threw the paper away.

However, it reminded me of another thing going through our homes: neutrinos. I can see no benefit with billions of neutrinos rushing through my bedroom every second, and yet it happens. What is the government doing? Are there any committees investigating how this can be stopped?

I know they are small little fellows, but imagine one neutrion hits a glass bottle so it falls over and breaks. That would be really annoying, would it not? All that orange juice all over the table!

They are so small that it would not help putting tin foil around the apartment - I know that. They just rush through it. It would not help getting a cat either. The cat might catch on or two of the neutrinos, but then it would probably go to sleep, and billions of other neutrinos would just continue through the living room, past my armchair and then out again.

Therefore I put up a sign in the vestibule: "Neutrinos not wanted. Please, stay away. Please, please, please?"

If that does not stop them, I do not think anything will.

30 September 2008

The right focus

We are in the arguably most severe economic crisis since 1929, so everyone's attention should be at the economy, right?

Well, apart from the American congress, which yesterday chose not to do anything at all.

But look at the favourite articles by the readers of The Independent, one of Britain's most serious newspapers.

The most viewed articles on their website at this moment are the following ones:
  1. The Ten Best Sex Toys
  2. Lawrence dogged by injury
  3. The 50 Best Menswear
  4. 'I couldn't function without cocaine'
  5. The Ten Best Ways for a Man to Impress a Woman
  6. Sean O'Grady: Why bailouts only add to the sense of panic
  7. Dominic Lawson: Why should anyone trust Joe Biden?
  8. The Ten Best Cushions
  9. Crisis derails John McCain's fightback
  10. Exclusive: The methane time bomb


Well... hmm... at least twoof them are about the economy, even though the five first ones are not.

28 September 2008

Maruska's road to fame


There are plenty of people who have their photos taken, that do not get famous, even if their photo happens to appear in a newspaper. There are plenty of pretty people, who do not get famous. There are plenty of happy people who do not get famous. There are plenty of trade unionists who do not get famous. However, if you show true intense happiness over a political event and if you are pretty and a journalist happens to take a picture of you at that very instant, you can get reasonably famous.

That is what happened to Maruska Piredda, an air hostess with Alitalia. Last week, when her trade union, Cisl, said no to yet another proposal to save the airline, she was happy over the outcome, and her radiant face made it to newspapers around the world.

To many of us, her reaction seemed bizarre. The airline has no money left, and it is bleeding millions every day. Any attempt to rescue Alitalia seemed laudable, and here signora Piredda shouted of joy that the rescue was refused.

Corriere della Sera was also intrigued and interviewed her. She was also interviewed on Italian state television.

There are two interesting things here. One is that someone can get famous for being happy in the wrong place. The other is that it may not have been the wrong place after all. For the time being (28 September 2008), it seems like the airline is saved anyhow. And the strong (some people may say "mad") actions of the unions may have led to better conditions for the staff in the long run. Provided the airline survives.

25 September 2008

Wisdom of the North

In many bookshops in Europe and America, you can find books with titles like "Wisdom of the Orient" or "Eastern Philosophy". Likewise, in China and Japan, you can find books with titles like "Wisdom of Western Philosophy".

What so far seems to be missing is "Wisdom of the North". I try to remedy that with a few words of wisdom from Sweden:

From the world of plants:

På tallrik ätes efterrätt,
men om man tänker efter rätt,
man också tallrik kallar,
den skog som talrik är på tallar.


About animals:

"Far, får får får?"
"Inte får får får! Får får lamm."


From the world of skilled crafts:

Knut knöt en knut. När Knut knutit knuten, var knuten knuten.

Luck - an important ingredient in genius

There is an old scam that goes like this:

Send one thousand messages to one thousand persons. 512 messages predict that the stocks will go up the following week. The other 512 recipients get the message that the stocks will go down. Next week, you send only 512 messages, depending on the actual outcome of the stocks, so all the current recipients will get the impression that you were right last week. In 256 of the new messages, you predict that the stock will go up, and in 256, you predict that it will go down. Next week, you limit yourself to 128 messages, depending on if the stocks went up or down. You do this for about two months, halving the number of recipients each week, and you will soon be down to a handful of recipients.

Now, you send these few recipients a message asking them if they are now convinced of your knowledge of the stock market. If so, they can subscribe to your upcoming newsletter at an exorbitant cost.

The recipients can see from the messages they have so far received that you always have been right in your predictions, and they are reasonably likely to trust that you will succeed in the future as well.

Of course, you are completely unable to live up to their expectations, but that is besides the point.

The important thing is that you through a completely random process was able to give the impression that you were incredibly clever.

Now...

Let's have a look at some professions, like teachers or company directors. Let's assume that everyone with these professions have identical skills.

Nevertheless, some teachers will produce a large number of exceptional students, just through the laws of random chance.

Likewise, some company director may end up with a range of very successful deals and high profit for their companies.

This does not mean that anyone can be a teacher or a CEO. Skill clearly plays a roll in results. That is common sense.

However, it means that luck is an ingredient not to ignore in success.

Today's crisis - whose fault?

People try to blame each other for today's problems in the financial market, but it seems equally likely that it is the fault of no one.

Each investor tried to maximize his profit. Even if they could see that the risks were high with subprime loans, they almost had to take them not to get behind their competitors.

This is a good example of a case where the capitalist system does not work. The system encouraged each individual to take risks that are unsustainable if everyone takes them.

The ironic thing is that part of the cause lies within the planned economy. Fannie Mae was created in 1938 as part of the New Deal, which was US government intervention to solve the mess of the 1929 crash.

The investment banks were a result of the Glass-Steagall Act, 1933, which also was part of the New Deal. This act prohibited banks from both accepting deposits and underwriting securities to avoid speculation and conflicts of interests, so investment banks and commercial banks split into different institutions.

A problem was that this focus on one activity made the investment banks fragile, something which became apparent this year, 2008, when all the five big ones disappeared. (Bear Stearns got problems and was bought by JPMorgan Chase in March. Merrill Lynch was sold to Bank of America 14 September. Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection 15 September. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley became mixed banks 22 September.)

And yet, we all saw this happening before our eyes. The Democrats cannot say that the Republicans created the crisis, as both parties have had full access to all information. If the Democrats had been any wiser, they would have warned about the problem earlier on. Neither can the Republicans claim that the Democrats caused the mess, as the Republicans have had eight years to fix it without doing anything at all.

But it does not stop there. The Europeans did not warn about the situation. The Chinese did not see it coming. Neither did the Arabs, Africans, South Americans or anyone else. No one in the whole world was able to convincingly say that this problem was coming.

The conclusion for each and everyone of us is this: I was not alone in not seeing this coming. I am not alone in ignoring how to fix it.

FM and FM

There is something strange with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They were state supported institutions whose main purpose was to make it possible for people who could not afford it to buy houses.

The result was that they made the housing market unstable. They were there to hang a Damocles sword over the economy.

The excuse was that they helped poor people buy their homes. That is a very worthy cause. However, making it easier for poor people to buy houses, means that the demand increases and house prices increase. And this increase is illusory, as the prices depend on FM and FM. Once the state decides not to support them, the prices fall, and everyone loses.

15 September 2008

A detailed survey

In the company where my sister works, a director heard that customers sometimes were not happy with the delivery time. To investigate this, a group was formed to create a survey. The draft survey was sent to each department manager. Each manager was able to add at most 10 questions to the survey. It was decided that each answer should contain a mandatory text field, where the customer should enter an explanation for his answer. In addition, multiple-choice answers were allowed. The average number of choices for each question was 17.2.

A few months later, the survey was ready to go out to customers. The return rate was an unfortunate low 2%, but luckily the group managed to get enough material out of each response to compile a report with 400 pages. The summary conclusion was 87 pages, according to people who claim to have read that far.

When management saw the report, they were very proud of the result and archived it for future use, once they had time to analyse the material.

That is, they archived everything that was stored electronically. Part of the report was an appendix written by hand in a paper notebook. It was the result of a janitor, who used to ask customers who came to the building "Are you happy with our delivery times?" He wrote the answers down in his notebook. 98% answered "no". 2% answered "yes".

That paper was thrown away.

03 August 2008

Something to lose sleep over - usability

Somewhere in the Netherlands sits a computer program designer, who works for the GPS manufacturer Tomtom.

This designer decided that the words "now disconnect the device", was enough for smart people to understand that they should go to the menu "Device" and choose the option "Disconnect", after which they should physically disconnect the device.

I yesterday evening apparently did not belong to the group of smart people, so I just disconnected without going through the menus, and the GPS crashed completely.

On Tomtom's website there are of course support links, but none of them go to any forums where one can ask for help.

The FAQ required me to enter the GPS's model type. The box says Tomtom ONE. The options on the website were TomTom ONE XL, TomTom ONE 30 Series, TomTom ONE 3rd Edition, TomTom ONE 2nd Edition and TomTom ONE 1st Edition. The device itself does not give the number.

I was also asked to enter the product code. There was a very informative picture telling me how to get the product code from the device, IF THE FRIGGING THING HAD BEEN WORKING. If I go to the support site, because the device does not work, why do they require me to enter a product code I only can get from a working device!?

The entire support site was in French, by the way, even though there was a non-working option to enter English as preferred language - mostly as decoration, I guess.

In the end I followed the instructions at this faq. It told me first to reset the device (after it had forced me to guess a random model number.) I then restored the software (without success), backed up and duplicated the file system, reformatted the card, restored the content and finally cleared the flash.

The entire operation took about four hours. This morning I woke up four hours later than usual, and missed the opportunity to take a nice brisk walk in the fresh morning temperature. It is now around noon and more than 30 degrees.

That computer program designer in the Netherlands made me lose four hours of my life. Dear, Tomtom, sack him!

29 July 2008

Clarity without Perfection

To many teachers, writing well is to write perfectly - not to write clearly.

What we usually are taught in school is to write with correct spelling and perfect grammar. However, it is perfectly possible to write using correct spelling and perfect grammar without being clear.

Is that clear?

17 July 2008

Private Photos in Public Spaces

One should not forget that people may feel strongly about having their photos taken in public, and accept their feelings - no matter what they are. When I go to a public space with my camera, I consider myself a guest, and I should respect the wishes of everyone around me, as much as possible.

On a trip to Taiwan last year, I saw a charming small workshop where a woman with a very characteristic face was working. It was a perfect shot opportunity, so I asked for her permission to take a photo. She was very polite, but very firmly said no. Just the workshop and not her? No. Just her outside the workshop? No.

If this woman is photophobic at her private workplace, she has all the rights in the world to be so in public as well. I do not want the presence of my camera make her nervous when she goes shopping or crosses the street.

Taking candid pictures of private people can cause exactly that kind of nervousness, so I do not do it if I can avoid it.

Does that make me lose photo opportunities? Yes.

Does that make my portfolio poorer? Yes.

Do not other people take plenty of candid photos in public spaces? Yes, they do.

However, I think we own it to the respect for others, not to do to them what they may highly dislike, regardless of if we happen to share their dislike or not.

There are, after all, plenty of people who happily say yes to having their picture taken, when asked. And there are plenty of people in public situations, like parades, public theatre, concerts and demonstrations, who implicitly accept having their photos taken. They choose to be there to be seen.

Limit the phone access

It may not be the biggest problem human civilisation has encountered, but is not all inclusive rates for mobile phones horribly annoying?

You may sit down on the train or in a bus to peacefully read a book or a newspaper, and it turns out that the person next to you has unlimited minutes on his/her phone, so they go on talking, talking, talking, just to be social with someone at the other end. It does not cost them anything after all.

I'm all for short useless messages like "We are just approaching the station. No, wait, not yet. But we'll soon be there. Just on time." However, when the discussion goes on for 30 minutes or more, it is torture. Sometimes what you eavesdrop is not even interesting enough to publish to the world on your blog.

31 May 2008

The greater gift

I just forgot what I intended to write about. Luckily.

Could you imagine what our brains would be like, if we remembered all the clever ideas we ever had? What an incredible chaos there would be!

Forgetfulness is a much bigger gift to us from God than memory.

01 May 2008

Headline spin and bias

Our opinions are usually based on facts to a reasonably large extent. I guess that at least 15% of our opinions come from evaluations of facts we hear. The rest is based on the subconscious desire to share opinions with people around us, the desire to oppose the opinions of people around us, and repeated unsubstantiated messages in media. It has been claimed that "the fourth estate", media, are important in forming our opinions, as they select which facts to give us.

At least as important is the way they present those facts.

One striking example of this is a story presented at sina.com and AFP. Both articles build entirely on a story from China's state news agency Xinhua (新华). They do not use any other sources. All the facts are the same. However, Sina's headline is Policeman killed in pursuit of riot leader. Read no further. You learn that a policeman is killed, the poor fellow. AFP's headline is Police kill Tibetan during gun battle in China: state media. Again, read no further. You learn that a Tibetan is killed by nasty Chinese police, the poor fellow. If you read both headlines you may end up very confused. Was a policeman killed or did he kill? It turns out both are true.

The two news sites slyly ignore the death of one or the other of the two victims in the headline. This conveniently twists the opinions of the casual reader, who reads headlines but not articles.

26 April 2008

Svarabhakti

As I grow older there are a lot of things from the past that I forget. Some things disappear completely. Some things hang around like very thin threads that make me almost remember them, but not quite.

For many months, perhaps years, I have wondered about one word that has been bouncing around like a rubber ball in my brain every now and then. I did not remember exactly what it sounded like, so it was impossible to search for it on the world wide thingummy.

Today, finally, the word became clear enough for me to find it: svarabhakti.

In case you also go around and wonder what it is about, here is what I found out:

A svarabhakti is a vowel that is inserted between two consonants. One example would be if you pronounce blue really slowly: be-lueue. The e between b and l is a svarabhakti. In many languages a large number of words have svarabhakti, like German, Dutch, many Celtic languages and Icelandic. It is difficult to find an Icelandic text without any words with the suffix -ur, and the u in -ur is a hundreds of years old svarabhakti. The word maður used to be maðr, but the Icelanders gave up pronouncing the tricky consonant combination ðr and added the u to make things easier.

The word svarabhakti comes from Sanskrit. Svara (स्वर) means sound, vowel. The word bhakti (भक्ति ), on the other hand, belongs to those words that can mean about anything: devotion, fidelity, order, part and division. The logic of the full word is "a vowel that divides" [two consonants from each other].

Other words for the same thing are epenthesis (ἐπένθεσις, from επι, on + εν, in + θεσις, placement) and anaptyxis (ανάπτυξής, growth).

At least that's what the internet tells me. However, it is unable to tell me where and when in the past I had seen the word before.

23 April 2008

The clear message

Occasionally one can hear people asking for a "clear message" to this or that person or country about this or that issue. Clarity is a nice thing. A clear summer day is much nicer than an unclear summer day. Clear vision is nicer than blurry vision. A clear mind is better than a confused mind.

So let's have a look at some of the clear messages given in history:

Serbian nationalists gave Archduke Ferdinand a very clear message the 28 June 1914.

Germany gave Poland a very clear message 1 September 1939.

Japan gave the US a very clear message the 7 December 1941.

George W. Bush gave Saddam Hussein a clear message 20 March 2003.

The results of these messages may not always have been what the sender intended, but they were undoubtedly clear.

Have I made myself clear in this blog entry? No? Good!

22 April 2008

For a good cause - or two

A friend of mine lives in Lyon. He is sick of the continuous anti-Chinese bias in Western press, so he will join the boycott of Carrefour that some Chinese bloggers plan for the 1st of May. Carrefour is the target, as it is the most visible French retailer in China. So my friend will shop at Auchan instead the 1st of May. This may be tricky, as it is not yet clear if Auchan will be open on the 1st of May, which is a public holiday in France. Carrefour may not be open either, but my friend claims this will just diminish his temptation to abort the demonstration.

Just in case, he will go twice to Carrefour in advance, the 29th and 30th of April, to pile up things he usually buys there, so he will not risk missing anything the crucial day.

Note that this is a protest against the French insensitive handling of the crisis in Tibet and a protest against the biased Western press. At the same time, my friend is a big fan of Tibetan culture, so the weekend before the 1st of May, he will participate in a manifestation for Tibet - especially for momo (མོག་མོག་).

I do not know if my Lyon friend fully understands the issue, but we live in a democracy, so even people who do not understand things are allowed to say what they think.

I also have some Chinese friends living in Shanghai. They have obviously heard a lot about the proposed boycott the 1st of May, and they are completely aware of the consequences. Therefore they will exceptionally go shopping at Carrefour 1st of May, as it hopefully will not be as crowded as usual.

20 April 2008

Democratic action against democracy


This is perhaps a cheap observation, but at the same time as the French propagate for democracy in China, the Chinese use the democratic rights they have to demonstrate against France for that same reason.

19 April 2008

Side effect of fighting crime

The pirates who seized a French luxury yacht a few weeks ago have now been charged by a French court.

This is of course excellent news. The innocent civilian crew on the ship, who were all taken hostages, can now feel that they are better protected on future trips outside Somalia, and so can thousands of other sailors. Pirates will now know what awaits them if they attack French ships, and probably ships from other rich countries as well.

However, they are likely to face no worse consequences than before, if they attack Somali ships - and perhaps Eritrean, Yemenite, or ships of many other Arab and African nationalities. If the innocent crew had been North Korean or Cuban, would the French have taken so swift action to liberate them?

It is difficult to demand of the French or any other country to spend as much resources on protecting and liberating foreign nationals as their own. But, surely, it is an unfortunate situation.

Pirates outside Somalia now risk concentrating on ships from countries that are too poor to protect their nationals efficiently.

13 April 2008

Kunlangeta - mon amour

This is a conditional truth: there are few people who are so nice to be with as psychopaths. A psychopath tries to manipulate you. He lies to you. He does everything for himself, even if he has to crush you. And he is really charming, when he does this.

The psychopath is like a glass of wine - it is very pleasant if you only know when to stop. You need to be able to back out, go away, hang up and cut off at any moment. And you need to be aware, to think of this at every instance: this is not just a glass of water; this is not a decent person. Keep the distance.

If you get to depend on a psychopath, you are toast.

Kunlangeta is allegedly an Inuit Yupik word for psychopath. It is mentioned by a Jane Murphy in an article in Science from 1976 to illustrate that there are psychopaths in all cultures. It is very easy to make that kind of vocabulary claims for small languages without being contradicted. There are less than 20,000 people speaking any dialect of Yupik, and it is unlikely that many of them are aware of all the clinical symptoms of psychopaths. How many of them will read that article from 1976 and verify or deny the claim? Let's not forget that one of the most ridiculous linguistic claims ever has been made for Inuit languages: that they should have hundreds of words for snow.

The same article claims that arankan is the Yoruba word for psychopath. However, Yoruba is a big language with more than 20 million speakers, and there are actually dictionaries available. The word simply means "malice" or "evil". It is hardly surprising that there is a word for nasty in Yoruba, and that does not prove that there are psychopaths in Nigeria. It is very likely that there are some there as well as elsewhere, but the mere fact that Yoruba has a word for nasty is no proof.

27 March 2008

Nothing new under the sun - not this anyhow

A lot of the fiction we read, hear or watch are just variations of archetypal myths that have been around for thousands of years. Sometimes the myths are well documented. Sometimes they are less well documented.

As an example we can take a song from last week's Now Show on BBC 4. It was Mitch Benn who started off with a classical "serious" introduction mentioning the author Arthur C. Clark and a recent finding that there is methane on the planet HD 189733b, which is 63 million light years away.

He then starts singing with an introduction about watching the stars - a theme that has been around for thousands of years. Only at the fourth line comes a slightly hidden reference to what clearly will be the theme of the song.

We cast our eyes out to the stars
Lose dodgy home made probes on Mars.
Who would imagine, who could tell,
the first sign of life would be a smell?

Note that the reference is not in clear. The same message could have been given in much more explicit words, but to keep the tension, it is only the very last word that hints at what will come: smell.

Then comes a stanza where the message is very blunt. It is reasonable to assume that man has laughed at flatulence for ten thousand years, and conceivably hundreds of thousand years. A studio audience of 2008 is still bound to laugh at the mere mention of the word "fart" - something that triggers certain emotions in most us, be they laughter or disgust.

Something's farting way out there in space
Are they friendly, are they hostile?
search your heart and search your nostrils.

To further play on the motive of emotions, the listener is asked to "search his heart" and then in an anaphora also his nostrils. Asking the listener to search his heart, his emotions, is a theme that catches our attention, and it certainly has done so for thousands of years.

Something farting in some far off place
And they left a trace behind
a close encounter of the whiffy kind

Again, the "far off place" evokes the distant unknown. During the neolithic it may have been the next valley. For Moses the promised land. For Columbus India, and for Neil Armstrong the moon. To all of us, there is some distant place where we have not yet been.

The reference to a "close encounter of the whiffy kind" uses the ancient method to create a bond between singer and audience by referring to common knowledge. In this case, it is of course a reference to the Steven Spielberg film from 1977 with a title alluding to a close encounter of the "third" kind. (For those who have forgotten, according to dr. Josef Allen Hynek, an encounter with aliens of the first kind is sighting. An encounter of the second kind is one with evidence for the encounter. An encounter of the third kind is contact. Dr. Hynek did not comment on whiffy encounters, as far as I can tell.)

The next stanza is probably the weakest one, and it does not follow known narrative archetypes very much. The mention of a distant place is just a repetition. The "gas giants" do not refer to any known mythical organism, and it does not clearly define the nature of such an organism. The stanza is probably perceived by most as a far fetched attempt to get more out of the gas theme without actually adding much of a message.

Something's farting way out there in space
it's hitherto unknown to science
someone's letting off gas giants.

The final stanza evokes an imaginary reality - a "what if" statement, just like man has probably done for thousands of years. Here Mitch Benn launches the thought that aliens may use olfaction as a major method of communication. It is of course far fetched, as smell does not transport very quickly over large distances. But it is nevertheless a possible means of communication for beings who stay close, like insects using hormones to call each other's attention. Even humans use hormones for sexual communication, but we are usually unable to consciously recognise the smell of hormones, even though we subconsciously use the information when selecting our partners.

Something's farting at the human race,
but we mustn't get irate.
It might just be how they communicate.



Ironically the whole theme of the song is incorrect. Methane is a gas that does not constitute a major part of flatulent gases, and it is in fact odourless. A fairly big part of the methane in the atmosphere admittedly comes from mammal flatulence, but most of the emitted gas in a flatus is nitrogen. The smell of flatulence mostly comes from sulphuric compounds, skatole and indole.

Factual accuracy is of course not needed in order for a fictional work to be appreciated. The lack of factual accuracy is very likely also a fictional theme that is thousands of years old.

23 March 2008

An nescis, mi fili, quantilla prudentia mundus regatur

Conspiracy theories are often used to explain things that do not have any simple explanation - at least not simple enough for the speaker. Or they can be used to replace an explanation that does not fit one's ideas of what the world should be like.

Here is one theory for example: The present riots in Tibet are started by the Taiwanese government. The reason is that the riots will badly affect the Chinese stock market, which will go down, thus slowing down the economic development and inflation, which long term is good for the Chinese economy. It is in the interest of the Taiwanese to have a neighbour with a healthy economy, as that is good for their export market.

Is that a likely theory? Of course not. But all the steps individually are logical, even though the sum of them is ridiculous.

For most events in the world, it is easy to make up a "theory" like that, which may explain what you do not understand.

However, a lot of things happen without anyone wanting them. Some examples:

The first World War, 1914-1918, was in no one's interest. The state leaders who started it thought it would be a short affair, but no one had anticipated the importance of the Chauchat and other machine guns, the air forces or the tanks. In 1914 no one could have anticipated the Russian revolution or its consequences for the rest of the 20th century. It was development that happened on its own, without any conscious decision taken by any single individual. The entire war was just one big blunder.

The Russian revolution in itself was a strange case of things happening without anyone understanding its consequences. The members of the first polite bureau during the October revolution 1917, the people who kicked it off, were Lev Kamenev (Лев Борисович Каменев), Nikolai Krestinsky (Николай Николаевич Крестинский), Andrei Bubnov (Андрей Сергеевич Бубнов), Grigory Sokolnikov (Григорий Яковлевич Сокольников), Leon Trotsky (Лeв Давидович Троцкий), Josef Stalin (იოსებ სტალინი, Иосиф Сталин) and of course Vladimir Lenin (Владимир Ильич Ленин). Out of these all but Lenin were killed off by Stalin in different ways. In other words, five out of seven initiators were killed due to the event they had themselves started. Out of the 1,966 delegates to the 17th Communist Party Congress, which confirmed Stalin's power, more than half were later arrested by him, and most of them died. Clearly, they had no idea what they were doing - just like so many decision makers today.

When Osama bin Laden (أسامة بن لادن‎) and al-Qaida (القاعدة) blew up the World Trade Center in 2001, they cannot possibly have had any idea what the effect would be. They could not know if the American response would be bigger understanding for Islamic issues with American policies, the deposition by the Americans of the Saudi government or mass conversion to Islam. Neither could they have predicted the irrational attack on Iraq, which, as we know now, was completely unrelated to al-Qaida. Here we had a case of an irrational action from al-Qaida that was followed by an irrational action by the USA.

In spite of this the world moves forward. The state of affairs was well put by the Swedish 17th century statesman Axel Oxenstierna. His son doubted his own abilities in taking on an important diplomatic mission. Axel Oxenstierna replied:

An nescis, mi fili, quantilla prudentia mundus regatur?


Or in English:

Do you not know, my son, with how little wisdom the world is ruled?


19 March 2008

The Best but not the Only

There is a very big difference between thinking that your own opinion is the best one and thinking that your own opinion is the only possible one.

18 March 2008

Mysterious Tibet


This is an apolitical blog entry. It does not intend to accuse anyone. It does not intend to free anyone from responsibility of their actions. The intention is just to add perspectives to current events.

There have been riots in Lhasa (ལྷ་ས་) the last few days. No one can deny that. For most of us Tibet is very far away. To many of us, all of China is very far away. It is populated by people we may not know, and it is ruled by a government that is very different from all Western governments.

A team of neuroscientists at Harvard have recently discovered that we use the same brain region (the ventral medial prefrontal cortex or vMPFC) when we think about people we consider similar to ourselves, as we do when we think about ourselves. When we think about people we do not consider similar, however, we do not use that brain region.

It is reasonable to assume that most of us Westerners do not use the vMPFC when we think about the Chinese. It is also very possible that a lot of Chinese do not use it when they think about Tibetans, and that a lot of Tibetans, especially Tibetans in exile, do not use it when they think about Han Chinese. ("Han" is a word for people who speak some variant of Chinese as first language - not Tibetan or other non-Chinese languages.)

It is much easier for us Westerners to condemn the Chinese government than our own ones. It is very far away, and we do not need the vMPFC to think about it. The pure fact that people get killed in Lhasa may trigger people to condemn the Chinese government. Well, killing is not good, so that must be reason enough to condemn the government, must it not?

It can be. It often is. This may be a case when it is. But let's anyhow apply some perspective.

Last year there were riots in Villiers-le-Bel in France over a mortal car accident where a police car was involved. 130 policemen were injured. 70 cars were burned. One library, two schools, one police station and several shops burned down. Did you blame the French government?

Last year in Nørrebro in Denmark, 750 people were arrested in riots over the closure of a youth centre. Did you blame the Danish government?

In 2001 in Genova, Italy, 329 persons were arrested, 400 rioters and 100 security men were injured and 1 person was shot dead in riots around the Group of Eight Summit. Did you decry the Italian government?

In 1992 in Los Angeles, USA, 53 people died in riots over a questionable court verdict. Did you condemn the American government? Would you boycott American products because of this?

We still do not know exactly what triggered the events in Lhasa - something that perhaps is not that surprising, as the Chinese government considers it has the right to block news when it thinks it is needed. However, the cause for the riots is very likely to have something to do with some Tibetans' desire for independence from the People's Republic.

We do not even know if they planned to start riots for their goals, or if the riots just happened, as some tense situations got worse.

There are, however, reports that the violence has been aimed at Han Chinese. A Swiss tourist, Claude Balsiger, said everything that looked Chinese had been attacked or beaten up. The Economist talks about an orgy of anti-Chinese rioting and at least one Han Chinese stabbed to death by the rioters.

Still, it is very difficult to judge if the rioters had cause for their violence, and it is not known how violent the authorities' answer has been. People have died on both sides, but the exact circumstances are not known to the outside world.

The Tibetans may fight for what they perceive as the freedom of their country, like the IRA in the United Kingdom and the ETA in Spain. Have you blamed the Spanish governments for the 800 casualties in the fight with ETA, and did you want your country to cut all ties with the British government for the 1800 casualties when fighting the IRA?

And if you did so, did you use your vMPFC when you did it?

Hopefully, this blog entry has not changed your opinions on Tibet or China. Regardless of your opinions, that was not the blog's intent. But hopefully some of you now feel you have a better foundation for whatever opinions you have - and hopefully your vMPFC plays a part in it.

14 March 2008

"I just did like they did"



The picture above of smiling girls on a picnic is taken at a recreation home called Solahütte. The girls are having blueberries enjoying a day far from work. Solahütte is just a little South of Auschwitz, and the man handing out blueberries is Karl Höcker, adjutant of the concentration camps' commander. The girls are SS helpers. At the same time, 1944, hundreds of thousands of people are exterminated in the gas chambers of Auschwitz no more than 30 km away.

If you had met one of those girls on the street a sunny summer day, would you have imagined that they could work at a concentration camp? Would they have been able to imagine it themselves 10 years earlier? 5 years earlier? 5 months earlier?

There was a recent article in der Spiegel about how common people were introduced to the SS for work in the camp.

Karl Höcker himself had been bank teller before joining the SS. The camp commander, Richard Baer, had been confectioner - probably giving free candy to happy children.

Nine out of ten new SS men who came to work in the camp refused the order "kick that man in the stomach", the first time they heard it. The fresh SS men seem to have had common human moral standards: "Kick him!" "No, I will not do it." That means that nine out of ten SS men refused to obey order in one of the strictest armies in history. They refused the first time.

Then started an intense psychological attack with insults and group pressure to make the newcomers do what they were told. Most of them gave in of course.

Most humans follow the moral standards of the group around them. If your only acquaintances think it is fine to steal towels at hotel rooms, you may very well think so too in the end. If they think it is fine to cheat with their tax declaration, you may do so too. If they think it is fine to steal cars, to burgle apartments, to sell drugs to minors - you may think so too in the end. Imagine if you did not know anyone who did not do it. Imagine that all your friends did so. Everyone who ever showed they cared about you. Everyone you cared for. If your choice was between losing the only friend you had or to help him steal a car, what would you do?

The older SS men made sure than the younger ones were treated as friends, people who cared, people one could confide in. An inside jargon kept them together against "the others".

In the concentration camps, the older SS men used arguments as well. The prisoners were considered "criminals". Some of them had committed no other crime than to be born by a Jewish mother, but they were "criminals" in the eyes of SS, and they had to be treated as such. The violence against the prisoners was supposed to be necessary considering the "danger" the prisoners posed.

The psychological defence of the newcomers was slowly broken down - just like it is in some armies and other organisations today. And once the young SS man had accepted using violence, realising the status it brought him in the eyes of the older ones, he could be used to foster other newcomers in a vicious circle of increased violence.

The article in Der Spiegel may be biased. It may be read as a twisted excuse for what earlier generations have done. But it all seems very plausible. Humans are not inherently evil, but the clay we are built of can be shaped to make us criminal and evil given certain circumstances. The same lump of iron can be made into a gun or a ploughshare - be it in Rwanda, Nanjing (南京) or Srebrenica.

This does not free us from responsibility of course. On the contrary. Considering that some of the worst crimes in the world have been committed by people who probably just imitated what people around them were doing, we should consider "I just did what everyone else did" the worst of all defences.

08 March 2008

Un straniero crudo


Dan Brown has written a book called "Angels and Demons". It is mostly set in a city called "Rome" in a country he cleverly calls "Italy", just like the real country occupying the Apennine peninsula. It is a very entertaining book, at least as long as you remember that Brown does not have any clue about the real Rome, Italy or the Italian language or anything at all, apparently. Unfortunately, it is possible that your mind slips during the reading, and you briefly think he tries to come with facts or realistic descriptions, and then your adrenaline shoots up so your head is about to explode. He for example claims that the Christian Eucharist was inspired by the Aztec and he places Argentina on the Eastern side of the Atlantic.

And then there is the linguistic aspect. After languages like Esperanto, Volapük, Lojban and Klingon, the world now has a new artificial constructed language: Dan Brown Italian, (DBI). DBI vaguely resembles real Italian, but it is largely unintelligible by any Italian. A phrase like "we're fungito" does not mean anything in Italian. A "straniero crudo" means "an uncooked foreigner", whatever that is supposed to be. And when a DBI speaker says "È chiusa temprano" to express that something is temporarily closed, an Italian speaker's natural reply would be "do you speak English, by any chance?"

In spite of the large number of factual errors, the book remains entertaining. Dan Brown did the right thing to publish it. And all his readers do the right thing in making fun of him for it.

20 February 2008

The strange road to quality

A film containing dialogue is just a film.

If you dilute the dialogue with music, it becomes less intellectual. The more music, the more imbecile the film.

If you dilute the dialogue with silence, the film becomes more intellectual. A real high quality film contains no dialogue and no music at all.

10 February 2008

A distant election

Today there was a stampede at a concert in Indonesia, where 10 people died. After 30 years the Khmer Rouge leader Nuon Chea is finally brought to justice for crimes where millions of people died. More than 10,000 people fled from Sudan (السودان ) to Chad (تشاد‎) after attacks in Darfur (دار فور‎). We have cut down 20% of the Amazon jungle during the last 40 years.

And what do we get to read about on the front pages of our newspapers? We get to read who has won 3 out of 50 primary elections in a country, where we do not have the right to vote. Why would I care what is going on in primary elections in a country thousands of miles away? Tell me who won after the final election. That is enough for me. If I cannot affect the outcome of something that has no impact on me, I do not want media to spend space on it. There are other important matters in the world.

And yet, that seems to be something that Le Monde, Corriere della Sera, 日本経済新聞, Politiken, de Volkskrant and many other have not understood. All of them allocate more space to news about the American elections than one can reasonably justify.

Perspectives

I recently saw some presentation trying to impress me with the size of the universe. You know, one of those things that say that you are just a little dot compared to the entire earth, which is just a little dot compared to the Sun, which is just a little dot compared to the stars Betelgeuse (the name is a typo from يد الجوزاء) or Antares (Αντάρης).

However...

Size is not all that matters. The most complex known object in the universe is your brain. Or mine of course. Even my little bird brain is more complex than a planet like Jupiter. Jupiter has a certain interest to us, as there is so much of it so close to us, but it is all brawn and definitely no complex brain in it. It is all big boring mass.

And if Antares tries to brag with its size, that is not really convincing, as it easily would fit inside our solar system, inside Jupiter's orbit.

The really big things in the universe are the holes between the things - not the things themselves. And empty holes are really boring. A hole where you can hide your house key may be interesting, but holes that are light-years across are just mind-bogglingly and utterly boring. Unless you have a lot of house keys.

Not even the size of emptiness is particularly impressive. Without a telescope, you can see things that are 3 million light years away, and what one can see is a distance one can grasp.

To get to the full size of the big and boring universe, one only has to go another 3000 times that distance. In other words, if you each day travelled as far as one can see, you would not need more than ten years to cross the universe. And you would probably not see anything particularly interesting along the way.

With that perspective, I think things like Japanese adjectives or the social relations among bonobos are much more interesting.

27 January 2008

Winning is not important


They try to save the Tour de France from the doping scandals.

The problem is that it is so important for the participants to win, so the temptation to use doping will always be there. The solution is to make it less important to win. Instead one could base the rules on Just a Minute. You count points, but you do not really care about who won. The exact number of points is never revealed. No prices are handed out. And if there is a argument about the points in a particular stretch of a mountain stage, Nicholas Parsons always is the one with the last word.

26 January 2008

The dangerous environment

The current financial crisis is a real problem for the environment. The subprime problems and the story of Jérôme Kerviel take the media's attention from the problems with global warming. As this is going on, public consciousness diminishes, and the environmental problems rise.

On the other hand, it works the other way too. Sooner or later, the media will start talking about the environment again, and people will forget about financial issues. It is all the fault of the environment. Cannot anyone stop the environment, to protect the world of finance?

Misnomer

There are few things as rare in this world as common sense.

I wonder where it is common.

Seeing blind?

According to Nature the blind cavefish (Astyanax mexicanus) swims away from light. It "can sense light when young, even though their eyes lost their function over a million years of evolution." I do not believe that at all. I think it just has good memory.

24 January 2008

The noble art of disagreement

It is fully possible to disagree with someone, even if you understand the motivation for his opinion.

Just try.

18 January 2008

And flights of angels...

I just learnt that all living creatures without exception sleep - from highly developed Nobel prize laureates to the primitive house fly or the even more primitive telemarketer.

But what about plants and flowers? They sleep all the time, the lazy skivers.

12 January 2008

Them too

The military is sometimes a forgotten group. During the Iraq (العراق) war, the press angrily talked about Iraqi civilians being hurt. But what about the Iraqi military? There were certainly thousands of conscripts who wished nothing more than to go home, who were killed by American fire. Did that not matter? Did their mothers cry less, because their sons were part of the army?

The end of Language

I just realised that Language is disappearing. I read a few pages in báró Emma Magdolna Rozália Mária Jozefa Borbála Orczy's classic The Scarlet Pimpernel from 1903. I was awed at the language. Not that I had never read any pages in it before. But it just struck me now that all the prose one reads nowadays, on the internet, on television screens, even in newspapers, is null and nothing compared to the prose of Emmuska. Four thousand years of civilisation, and people suddenly stop mastering language.

Perspective

Le Monde today has two articles about human rights.

The first one is about Hú Jiā (胡佳), a dissident who has been sent to prison. The headline, Pékin traque les opposants avant les Jeux olympiques, implies that he is not the only one who has troubles with the government.

The second one is about Guantanamo. Eighty demonstrators against the prison made their way to the Supreme Court in Washington, where they were arrested.

Both articles are interesting. Both articles are important. However, both articles lack attempts at explanations. Why do the Chinese authorities imprison Hú Jiā? What is the rational? And why does he protest and so few others? Why did the American authorities arrest eighty demonstrators? What drives the demonstrators? What drives the authorities not to see what drives the demonstrators?

In other words, neither article supports a dialogue. It would have been so nice if they had been the only articles in the world that had that problem.

2 kinds of opinions. And mine.

There are two main kind of opinions. It is the one of hate and the one of love.

The one of hate may be things like "I hate parking tickets" or "I hate the government" or "I hate the people of the next town".

The one of love may be things like "I love our police force" or "I love the oldest presidential candidate" or "I love my own town".

My own opinions are of a third kind: I have no idea what I want.

But I like your kinds of opinions too.

11 January 2008

Found

Announcement in the department store:

Attention, all customers. Yes, all! Please, listen carefully. Quiet over there, at the camping department, please! We have received a grey leather handbag of the brand Deary, model Pauche. It has three pockets on the outside, two of them empty but the third one containing a local bus ticket from Basel's local transport system, bus number 23, issued 26 June at 10.34, monthly reduction price. The interior of the bag contains one brown semi-transparent plastic comb with 2 broken sticks. One packet of Hermann tissues. Three silver Parker pens, out of which only one works. One fairly new yellow note book in A6 format with the words "Doris - ph. 69443222425, buy her some chocolate and don't criticize her new dress". 4605 Euro in cash tied together with a green rubber string and 25 cents, made up of one Italian 20 cent coin and one Dutch 5 cent coin. One Avis car key, with a label on which it is written "Red BMW cabriolet - ACR193". One Glock G31 pistol loaded with three bullets. One postit with the words "Fafner bank - easy one". The bag itself has brass handles and a small scratch in the lower left corner below the pockets. There is a half inch stain, which probably comes from strawberry ice-cream at the closing end of the zip.

The owner may recover the bag if he describes it correctly at the lost-and-found department.

The literature professor's crime

What you learn during literature lessons is how to appreciate good literature. So why do the teachers use up the great classics to teach you this? They thereby destroy the pleasure you could have had, reading the classics as brand new works with your acquired skills.

The standard literature in school and at the universities should instead be Janet Evanovich and Dan Brown. If we were to use them to learn what good literature should have been like, we would appreciate Dickens and Proust much more when we finally were allowed to start reading the real master pieces.

If a teacher forces you to read Oliver Twist before you are able to appreciate it, he commits the horrible crime of depriving you of the experience of having an understanding mind when you read Oliver Twist for the first time.

10 January 2008

About me

I am a polyglot, meaning that I know enough about languages not to claim that I am able to speak more than one - if even that.

02 January 2008

Happy year!

People keep wishing each other happy new year. Why limit ourselves to the new year? Any year should be happy, whether it is old or new.

Happy 1972! for example.