Luck - an important ingredient in genius

There is an old scam that goes like this:

Send one thousand messages to one thousand persons. 512 messages predict that the stocks will go up the following week. The other 512 recipients get the message that the stocks will go down. Next week, you send only 512 messages, depending on the actual outcome of the stocks, so all the current recipients will get the impression that you were right last week. In 256 of the new messages, you predict that the stock will go up, and in 256, you predict that it will go down. Next week, you limit yourself to 128 messages, depending on if the stocks went up or down. You do this for about two months, halving the number of recipients each week, and you will soon be down to a handful of recipients.

Now, you send these few recipients a message asking them if they are now convinced of your knowledge of the stock market. If so, they can subscribe to your upcoming newsletter at an exorbitant cost.

The recipients can see from the messages they have so far received that you always have been right in your predictions, and they are reasonably likely to trust that you will succeed in the future as well.

Of course, you are completely unable to live up to their expectations, but that is besides the point.

The important thing is that you through a completely random process was able to give the impression that you were incredibly clever.

Now...

Let's have a look at some professions, like teachers or company directors. Let's assume that everyone with these professions have identical skills.

Nevertheless, some teachers will produce a large number of exceptional students, just through the laws of random chance.

Likewise, some company director may end up with a range of very successful deals and high profit for their companies.

This does not mean that anyone can be a teacher or a CEO. Skill clearly plays a roll in results. That is common sense.

However, it means that luck is an ingredient not to ignore in success.