24 February 2011

Say have you met Libya, Libya, the Tattooed Lady?

It is difficult to judge what the West should do or have done with Libya and the current crisis. Actually, it is not that difficult to judge - the difficulty is to come with the right judgement.

The Libyan map is tattooed with numerous peoples and religions: Arabs, Berber, Touareg, Tebou, Barasa, Majabrah, Sunni, Ibadi and so on. There are city dwellers, farmers, people who live by the coast and people who live in the desert.

Some of those different groups surely feel more distant to Muammar Gaddafi (معمر القذافي‎) than others. But how many of the Libyans feel primarily that they are Libyans?

That is the snag. Libya right now is in a horrible state, and at first glance it might seem like the human thing would be to send an international army to the country to put things in order. However, every outsider who tries to change the country in one direction or another, may contribute to a united "anti-foreigner" feeling in the country, and that movement would certainly be exploited by Gaddafi.

Yes, he has his own foreign mercenaries who fight for him, but they fight on Libyan orders. Not the orders of "the people" or of a democratically elected government, but the orders of the leader of the country since many decades, and that may give it some kind of legality in the eyes of some.

Sending foreign troops from the outside is a sensitive thing, and it is impossible to predict how the different Libyan groups would perceive it, no matter whose side the foreigners were to fight on. It might make some of the Libyans feel more nationalistic and loyal to Gaddafi. A foreign invasion might actually help Gaddafi. Or not.

On the other hand, it is horrible to stand without doing anything at the sideline and see the Libyans kill each other.

So what should be done? I do not know. I'm afraid I am agnostic.

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